Poll: Begich has edge on Stevens
Published Monday, June 9, 2008
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Stumble It!WASHINGTON — A recent poll shows Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich leading incumbent Ted Stevens in the U.S. Senate race.
The survey found 51 percent of those responding would vote for Begich in November’s general election, compared to 44 percent who said they would back Stevens.
The poll indicates Begich is gaining name recognition across the state, but Stevens, who’s served in the Senate since 1968, also remains popular.
Some 58 percent of responders said they felt very or somewhat positive toward Begich, while only 16 percent had a negative opinion of the 45-year-old Democratic mayor. Eleven percent of those responding didn’t know of Begich.
For Stevens, the numbers were a little closer — 49 percent had a positive opinion, while 40 percent had a negative opinion. All of the survey’s 269 responders knew Stevens was the state’s senior senator.
Stevens’ bid to win a seventh full term in the Senate has been overshadowed by an ongoing corruption investigation by the U.S. Justice Department. Stevens has not been charged with any wrongdoing.
High name recognition may partially explain why the poll shows Stevens beating challenger Dave Cuddy by 15 percentage points in the Republican primary. More than 42 percent of poll participants said they had no idea who Cuddy was.
The poll did not ask about the Democratic primary, in which Begich faces Ray Metcalfe, founder of the Moderate Republican Party, and Frank Vondersaar. It also did not contain questions about the other seven long-shot candidates who hope to serve as Alaska’s next senator.
Half of those responding to the survey had no party affiliation or were registered Independents. Registered Republicans made up 27 percent of respondents; Democrats made up 22 percent.
The poll was conducted between May 6 and May 10 by Anchorage firm Hellenthal and Associates. It has a 6 percent margin of error.
The survey was paid for by Sam Kito, a lobbyist whose clients include the North Slope Borough.
House race
In the U.S. House race, nearly 42 percent of respondents said they would vote for former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz in the Democratic primary, compared to 30 percent who said they preferred Diane Benson. Nearly 29 percent said they were still undecided.
In the general election, Berkowitz would beat Young by a wide margin, 58 percent to 38 percent, according to the poll.
However, a matchup between Berkowitz and Republican Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell would likely go to Parnell, who received 43 percent to Berkowitz’ 38 percent in the survey.
Some 41 percent of those taking the poll had a positive opinion of Berkowitz, while only 13 percent noted a negative opinion. Twenty-six percent said they were neutral on the question of how they felt about Berkowitz, while nearly 21 percent had no idea who he was. Parnell and Benson had similar numbers in the unknown column.
Benson’s positives were 35 percent, compared to 12 percent who said they had a negative opinion of her. More than 25 percent said they had not made up their mind about her.
Parnell has a slim lead on incumbent Don Young (37 percent to 34 percent) in the GOP primary, though it’s still within the margin of error. Kodiak state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux was a distant third with just 8 percent of the vote. Some 15 percent of those responding said they were still undecided.
Nearly 46 percent of those asked had a positive opinion of Parnell. Only 8 percent said they had a negative opinion and 25 percent said they had a no opinion.
Young, whose close ties to lobbyists have prompted federal investigators to take a closer look at his activities, had more lopsided results: 35 percent positive, 52 percent negative, 13 percent undecided. Young denies any wrongdoing and has not been charged with a crime.
The poll found 12 percent of those asked had a positive opinion of Republican state representative LeDoux, while 10 percent had a negative opinion and 27 percent were undecided. More than half of the respondents did not recognize LeDoux’s name.
The poll did not contain questions about Frank Frost of Anchorage and Don Wright of Kenai, who have filed to run in the House race under the Alaska Independence Party banner.
The House and Senate primary elections are Aug. 26.
Palin and the pipeline
Gov. Sarah Palin also got high marks in the Hellenthal poll. Some 82 percent of respondents said they had positive feelings about the Republican governor, while only 10 percent felt somewhat negative or very negative toward her.
David Dittman of Dittman Research got similar results in a separate poll conducted during the first week of May.
“Alaskans seem to really like Sarah, and the increases in taxes and state spending don’t seem to cause her to be considered a ‘liberal’ to most Alaskans,” Dittman said in an e-mail.
Dittman queried voters on whether they thought the Republican governor was liberal or conservative. Fewer than one out of 10 considered Palin to be quite or very liberal, while 40 percent thought she was quite or very conservative. Another 42 percent said she was a more “middle of the road” Republican.
Palin’s personal popularity consistently runs close to 85 percent, Dittman said.
Her numbers dip somewhat when it comes to her handling of the natural gas pipeline and the Alaska Gasline Inducement Act.
“It’s not that Alaskans reject her pipeline efforts by any means, 70 percent give her quite or very good marks for the job she is doing regarding getting a natural gas pipeline build,” Dittman said. “But that doesn’t necessarily lead to support for AGIA.”
Only 24 percent said they disapproved of the job Palin is doing on the gas line.
Alaskans are more divided over which pipeline proposal the state should pursue. Some 42 percent of those surveyed said they support the BP-ConocoPhillips plan. Thirty-one percent said they preferred the TransCanada pipeline proposal. Twenty-four percent said they were unsure.
“Overall, I think she gets credit for trying, but Alaskans would actually prefer the producers,” Dittman said.
The main sticking points of the TransCanada proposal, which legislators are reviewing in a special session in Juneau, appear to be the $500 million in state subsidies and a provision that would allow TransCanada to recover three times its investment should the state back out, Dittman said.
The Dittman Research statewide survey included a sample of 421 respondents and has a margin of error of roughly 5 percent.
Contact Washington correspondent R.A. Dillon at dcnews@newsminer.com.
Community Discussion
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New blood is needed in government everywhere. Although Ted Stevens has done alot of good for Alaskans, it is time for him to step down and allow a new generation of leadership to take the reigns.
Good luck to Mark Begich and his run for the US Senate!
Bush is going to send us "to hell in a hand basket" isn't he?
I sure don't think Stevens has done much good for "Alaskans". He certainly has for the natives however. He is the architect of the great native land give-away, the bush subsidies, interference in the air carriers industry, bridges for friends,
He has done precisely nothing to help me or to make Alaska a better place for me to live that anyone else with a particle of common sense could not do.
Stevens needs to be gone … like in 1990!
It is unfortunate that some people cannot see what an incredible job "Uncle Ted" has done for us all, but it is past time for him to go. I, for one, wish there were term limits across the nation, but there aren't. Ted still needs to go. As for Don Young, well, enough said. My parents told me if I could not say something good about somebody, keep my mouth shut, I will do that here.
Suomi,
It sure is nice to dream, isn't it?
We moved to Anchorage 4 years ago from Fairbanks. Mark Begich was the new mayor. Since,our property taxes have gone thru the roof,all for his pet projects while the roads in our area crumble. Gang violence,murders and drugs are out of control. Anchorage is per-capita one of the worst cities in the nation for crime. Check out the numbers at the methadone clinic. Yeah,you may want to do a little research before you vote. Begich is by far more crooked then "ANY" republican ever in this state. Research his realestate scam.
Alaskan prefer the producers building a pipeline. What are they smoking? They have had over 30 years to build a pipeline and have done nothing. The only reason they are making pipeline construction noises is because Governor Palin has their feet to the fire. With AGIA gone, there will be no pipeline. People have to wake up to the fact that the oil and gas, mining, fur, fishing, and timber industry see Alaska as a raw material depot that they can rape and pillage at their leisure. Alaskans have been brainwashed into thinking that it is ok to send all of our raw renewable and non-renewable resources out of Alaska without first adding value to them. This has been going on for over a hundred years. We have been a state for 50 of those years and have learned nothing.
We need to stop sending our raw materials out without first adding value to them. That includes our oil and gas.
My question is: which of the candidates will embrace a policy that would encourage value added resource development and not an export mentality that robs Alaskans of jobs, a robust economy, and an Alaska that will have nothing but empty mine sites, dry oil and gas holes, all of our fish gone, timber all clear cut, and an Alaska with no future once all of our renewable and non-renewable resources are gone.
It is interesting that, so I've read, back in 1958 Congress held off statehood for Alaska because we were considered a "blue" state. Of course, we didn't have "blue" and "red" states back then, but you get the idea. It wasn't until Hawaii could also join that we got statehood. Hawaii was considered a "red" state. Congress did not want either party to gain an advantage. Obviously, the powers to be were wrong about the politics of both states. But they did keep the balance of power in check.
These poll numbers are interesting, but really meaningless. In 5 months people change their minds, unexpected events occur, polls are skewed any number of ways.
That said, I am heartened by the Parnell numbers. He'd make a good congressman, and I'd rather eat spruce bark than send a Dem to the House.
Sure it might be time for Ted to go--but Begich?? UGHHH.. As for comments about how terrible things have been in our country for the last 8 years I would have to take exception to that. You are never going to have everything going perfectly and if you let the tax and spend crowd run the show well good luck with all that. I keep hearing how bad the economy is. Is that why Wally World is packed always? Theatres and restaurants--packed. Even with high gas prices plenty of traffic jams in Anchorage. Even the poor have cellphones, computers, and big screen TV's.
"let the tax and spend crowd run the show well good luck with all that"
As opposed to the borrow-like-crazy and spend crowd? Sorry but republicans have no business using this tired old sneer, when they have been spending like drunk sailors, and NOT EVEN taxing to make up for it. Instead they borrow hand over fist, from alot of countries which bear us no good will. No, the Rs need to put their OWN house in order before jeering at Dems. For the first time ever I will be voting mostly for Ds this fall. The republican label has been damaged in *this* independent's view, and the poll numbers above say I'm far from the only one who thinks this way. The signs are pointing to a top to bottom Dem government in Washington next year, and I have never seen so many members of one party declining to run or retiring all at once as I see Rs jumping ship these days. I think this speaks volumes about how they see their party doing in the near future. Hopefully when they get themselves back together it will be with their core positions rediscovered. Til then they will NOT get any votes from me.
Agreed the borrow and spend crowd is just as bad. I would say they are the lessers of 2 evils. Too bad there isn't another choice. None of them will get a vote from me anyway because when voting time comes I am far away from any mailboxes or voting booths. But Begich only got where he is today because of his last name and he sucked as mayor of Anchorage.
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Begich will beat Ted only one way!
He will beat Ted to jail.
akmooster,
You're correct. There's some interesting peculiarities in that land deal, particularly in re. to 'commissions' vs. 'gifts,' and the way that terms change usage.
Mark and Ted have also been partnered at times, or otherwise involved, with the same common business person; Jon Rubini.
"The more things change, the more they remain the same..."
I wonder how long it'll take the country to figure out that we've been engaged in a decades-long game of 'good cop-bad cop' here, much of the time that we've limited our votes voted to either mainstream 'R's or 'D's.
"Here's the new boss, the same as the old boss...." (Roger Daltrey and Pete Townsend)
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