Supply and demand
As gasoline prices rise, U.S. should think about its own oil
Published Saturday, May 24, 2008
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Stumble It!Sen. Ted Stevens put out a news release Friday calling attention to the troubling views of those who oppose opening a part of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil development. He has put out reams of similar news releases across the decades that ANWR has been at the center of the nation’s energy debate, and he and others probably tire of doing it — but they keep at it because they know they are right.
And the times we are in now, times of high oil and gasoline prices, show they have been correct all these years.
Sen. Stevens on Friday had the following to say in his written statement:
“I think there is no question that this is a problem this country faces, the problem of supply. Too often, people in the Senate are unwilling to talk about the problem of supply.”
That’s dead on.
Demand is soaring, spurred by the rising economies of emerging nations. Supply is waning, driven downward by people with unrealistic ideas about the time needed for this country to transition from an oil-based country to one based on other energy sources.
Usually forgotten in the debate is the fact that supply and demand are two coequal parts of the equation. They are coequal, but they continually receive unequal attention from Congress.
Most of the discussion of late is all about reducing demand. Discussion about increasing the supply is usually met with ridicule, largely from Democrats who have succeeded over the years at blocking development of a part of the ANWR coastal plain — a part specifically set aside by Congress long ago as an area having potential for oil development.
It could be, however, that the law of supply and demand is about to get a jolt from the public. People, growing increasingly frustrated at the rising price of gasoline, might at long last demand their own country begin producing more of its own oil.
Maybe, after all the decades of news releases out of the offices of Alaska’s members of Congress, the energy promise of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge will be realized.
Community Discussion
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After all, Unca Ted has to add onto his house soon and he probably doesn't want the nice folks at VECCO feeling he's losing it.
As I've said before, after living up here almost 40 years I should be used to how fast some Alaskans want to sell out their state to the highest bidder but Stevens (and Young) seem to lead the pack. With the oil from the Exxon Valdez still easily found by digging just a short depth into the shoreline of PWS, Stevens will sell out whatever part of Alaska he can to the oil companies regardless of their inability to bring the oil out safely and deliver it without mishap. We just had an oil spill, a very small one admittedly, this past week on the Slope. It was notable because the pipeline experts were so surprised at how fast the line had corroded to allow it to happen. Imagine how surprised they will be when a much larger section gives way. Sure, they are supposed to have all this grand deterioration detection equipment and protocol in place but it seems to have failed them. And this isn't the first time.
There's a reason the Gwichi'in Tribe has fought so strongly against opening ANWR to drilling; they have seen what can happen and know how easily the prime calving grounds for their mainstay caribou could be lost.
BTW, if anyone can remember the great price reduction in gasoline and heating fuel that arose from the drilling of Prudhoe I'd sure like to hear about it. Prices may have stagnated for a bit but they rose steadily over the years. When I came up here I could get gas for 34 cents a gallon. That was before the first spadeful of tundra was ever turned over at Prudhoe. The price has never gone down significantly and you can bet even if they started oil flowing tomorrow from ANWR it wouldn't. The oil companies don't get to declare multi-billion dollar annual profits as they just did by lowering the price to the consumer.
Let's say ANWR gets authorized in the next hour, is that going to make next winter easier? Of course not. So most of the discussion of late should be about reducing demand and discussions about such decrease should not be met with ridicule.
If there is an unlimited supply and limited demand prics are low. If demand is unlimited and supply is unlimited then you theorectically have "two coequal parts of the equation" but that would not equate to low costs only the first option gives you that. If you have unlimited demand do you think you really would have unlimited supply? Which option is most likely.
On another note the Saudis say there is plenty of supply available and speculators are the culprits. Now that does seem likely.
AMEN Dobieman!!! Well stated!! Thanks for stating truth! A few years ago, Alyeska/TAPS made known to it's employees that anything over $12 a barrel was profit. This was within the last 7 years. The Gwichi'in Tribe has fought so strongly to keep their lands for very good reason, they have seen what others have given up for that almighty dollar, or promises made and not kept by those wanting the native lands. As for the oil only a few inches under the sand from oil spills, how sickening to see the damage still being done by the oil companies and the cronies who have been so in favor of the big oil "advances" (in other words ... money in the pockets one way or another of our elected officials). Wake up people! There is so much oil in so many other states, yet we don't hear how great it is for them ... maybe because their elected officials can understand the value of the land and not destroying what has taken decades to protect. Or maybe they don't need an addition to their home or a new bridge, or whatever. Just maybe they are representing their constituents and not the big oil. As for me, I would prefer to be able to walk down the beach/water's edge, dig down a little and use clean sand to help my garden be productive.
The latest estimate from the federal government (Bush Administration) is that opening the Arctic Refuge will have an approximate net gain of reducing a barrel of oil by $.75. Less than a dollar on $135/barrel oil. For that we need to concentrate so much on opening the only spot on the entire North Slope of Alaska that is closed to drilling? The Opinion piece says we have been concentrating on reducing demand, to the detriment of increasing supply. That's right, and it's correct to do so. We have hit a limit of sorts, and finally the American public is paying attention. Too bad it's a bit late, and too bad the New-Miner continues to spew this "if only ANWR was open, life would be rainbows" garbage.
The comments made above my posts would have never been possible without it.
In my opinion the oil that is still found in valdez has little to no impact on the environment. Most of it has been heavily weathered and hardly resembles the original product.
Crude oil is a naturally occurring product of nature, that some organisms have found a way to consume it. Yes, all has not been consumed yet but it is only because it is protected from the elements by large rocks above and limited elements required by the organisms that consume the oil. It will over the course of time be undetectable by machines just as it is unobservable today by the unaided eye.
The gulf of mexico by the way naturally spills twice the amount of the oil released by the exxon valdez annually from seeps below the surface without any deleterious effects and even if there was some measured effect nothing could be done about it anyway.
Oil is what makes our lives much easier then our ancestors and gives us the ability to do things like write this opinion.
We have come a long way to understanding the short and potentially long term effects of oil and have developed methods to mitigate the risk of spills. But as long as man endeavors to be productive there will always be accidents. We must weigh the benefits of it's use which far outweigh not using it.
If we all turned our backs on oil then we would still be living a more difficult life without it. Without the use of oil as a stepping stone we would be far worse off and probably would not have evolved our technologies enough to even fathom other alternatives as we are thinking of today..
Had drilling in ANWR been approved 10 years ago it would be coming online about now which would have in effect reduced the fears of speculators that supplies were dwindling which is driving up the price along with other factors (weak dollar).
Clothing Ink
Heart Valves
Crayons
Parachutes
Telephones
Enamel
Transparent tape
Antiseptics
Vacuum bottles
Deodorant
Pantyhose
Rubbing Alcohol
Carpets
Epoxy paint
Oil filters
Upholstery
Hearing Aids
Car sound insulation
Cassettes
Motorcycle helmets
Pillows
Shower doors
Shoes
Refrigerator linings
Electrical tape
Safety glass
Awnings
Salad bowl
Rubber cement
Nylon rope
Ice buckets
Fertilizers
Hair coloring
Toilet seats
Denture adhesive
Loudspeakers
Movie film
Fishing boots
Candles
Water pipes
Car enamel
Shower curtains
Credit cards
Aspirin
Golf balls
Detergents
Sunglasses
Glue
Fishing rods
Linoleum
Plastic wood
Soft contact lenses
Trash bags
Hand lotion
Shampoo
Shaving cream
Footballs
Paint brushes
Balloons
Fan belts
Umbrellas
Paint Rollers
Luggage
Antifreeze
Model cars
Floor wax
Sports car bodies
Tires
Dishwashing liquids
Unbreakable dishes
Toothbrushes
Toothpaste
Combs
Tents
Hair curlers
Lipstick
Ice cube trays
Electric blankets
Tennis rackets
Drinking cups
House paint
Rollerskates wheels
Guitar strings
Ammonia
Eyeglasses
Ice chests
Life jackets
TV cabinets
Car battery cases
Insect repellent
Refrigerants
Typewriter ribbons
Cold cream
Glycerin
Plywood adhesive
Cameras
Anesthetics
Artificial turf
Artificial Limbs
Bandages
Dentures
Mops
Beach Umbrellas
Ballpoint pens
Boats
Nail polish
Golf bags
Caulking
Tape recorders
Curtains
Vitamin capsules
Dashboards
Putty
Percolators
Skis
Insecticides
Fishing lures
Perfumes
Shoe polish
Petroleum jelly
Faucet washers
Food preservatives
Antihistamines
Cortisone
Dyes
LP records
Solvents
Roofing
.........this list is just a few examples of the benefits of oil.
Simple facts are:
Worldwide production is now at about 85 million barrels a day. Worldwide demand(thanks to China, India, and other developing countries)is however, at about 87 million barrels a day. The Alaska Pipeline is moving oil at 1/3 capacity and decreasing(thanks to eco-mental groups, their lawyers, and lackeyslators).
Do the math; Freezing in the dark is a very near reality.
Native Lands--Self Determination--As long as the grass shall grow... Indian Territories, Land Rush, Oil Rush, Buffalo, Caribou. Words, just words, broken treaties, broken promises, and broken words. The Gwichin are fighting to save what makes them Gwichin. It's theirs to decide not some old rich man in Congress.
No, no, no, Robert W Gilcrease.
The land belongs to the United State of America, not the Gwichn people. Sorry, the ancestral native land argument is dead in the water. Wait, before you say I'm being racist, ... I am 3/4 Native American.
User 6244 is absolutely right and I would like to add that those who do not see how OPEC nations determine profits by controlling supply be less quick to jump on the ol' "ANWR will only decrease a barrel by $1" game. As I have said time and time again, conservation/preservation is a noble concept and I am for reducing our consumption ...however, it the meantime, if our country increased exploration and production on our own lands, the MESSAGE it would send to OPEC nations would make much more of an impact than the actual production. The message: We know your game, we know what you are doing, and we are unwilling to be victimes of your suppy and demand pony and light show.
"Those that control the oil, make the rules". Let's send them a message that the USA is moving forward to be less dependent on foreign oil. They will buckle and increase supply (thereby reducing prices), or we will supplement our energy needs with American product, ... all the while funding research into sustainable, renewable energy technology.
I, too must completely disagree with Mr. Gilcrease, and I must partially disagree with Non-Lemming.
Legally, neither the Gwichin nor the United States Government hold claim on the North Slope. Under Article 1 Section 8 of the Constitution of the United States, the Federal Government cannot possess any land other than that needed for military installions, naval facilities, post offices/post roads, and the 10 x 10 mile area that was to become the District of Columbia. Under the 10th Amendment, all that is not specifically granted to the federal government belongs to the state and/or individuals.
I therefore must contend that the North Slope belongs to the State of Alaska, as well as the Inupiat, who actually live there.
I think we are just seeing the painful reality that we need to curb our consumption. We need a leaner model for living, and we will get it with or without ANWR. The price of oil is finally goading our lazy butts into change and that always hurts. I doubt that the small boon from ANWR oil will change the global picture. For Alaska it would be a good short term shot in the arm and continue with some economic benefit after initial production. But we would be in the same state we are in now: little local processing and beholden to the producers. Resource extraction has its limits and I think we are running up against them. More oil production development is really a short term solution without further development in processing and re-investment in our state. Think Norway, not Brazil in our model of the future use of natural resources. We aren't an outpost anymore.
I see a lot of people saying that since there are no lines at gas stations, no closures and no tankers backed up in the persian gulf that there is no supply problem. Even true, that does not mean more supply will not drive prices back down.
As Alaskans, we have to wonder: if this will not cause ANWR to be opened, what will?
Sorry all of you, none of this is "our land". We are borrowing it from God. If that opinion doesn't suit your fancy just ignore it, I am not going to read your God bashing today - you can answer to Him later.
There is no fix for this problem while we are purchasing from the Middle East. But, we can change our ways to keep from lining their pockets as much as we have been.
Stop at the grocery store on your way home from work. Make a grocery list, so you don't have to keep running back and forth. Sell the Hummer, SUV, buy something more practical.
This is a wake up call to individual people. We have to make changes. Really! Even the automotive industry. Back during the last crisis in the 70's, they were putting out cars that got better gas mileage than what we are seeing now. How soon we forget! I was just a kid then, but, I still remember!
I just walked through Bentley Mall and could not believe all of those goofy looking Hyundai cars. I thought that people were purchasing those because they got better gas mileage - I looked at the window stickers and the little cars were 21/28. Unbelieveable. They weren't cheap either.
I don't have all the answers. I do know we need to be less reliant on Middle East oil. We are 100% at their mercy, and when we have oil on our own lands we are being really stupid!!!
The day is going to come when our country will no longer be supplied by the middle east. They are going to cut us off. It isn't like they don't have enough people to supply. Then the real crisis will come.
user6244: You forgot to mention plastic-coated, Save the Earth bumper stickers, polar-fleece for those opposed to wearing fur, and the fairly routine arrival of groceries here in Fairbanks.
We do not have enough oil of our own to be self reliant. That is a lie put forward by politicians like Bush, Cheney, Stevens, and Young who are owned by the oil companies. Even if we suck every drop of oil out of our land, we won't be self reliant AND oil prices will not drop. That is why we went over to Iraq to gain control over their oil - and our brave soldiers are dying so that we can control Iraqi oil.
Our only hope for self reliance is to use our great American ingenuity to minimize the use of oil through alternative energy. That long list of items that are made from oil - nice list - we can do better. We can make those things out of other more sustainable materials. The biggest issue in this fight against American decline is education (we need smart people to develop smart ideas). Fifty percent of graduate students in the U.S. are from foreign countries. Although I'm not against foreign nationals coming here for education, it is worrisome that we can't find enough smart Americans to fill those graduate positions. The foreign nationals go home with their degrees and education and are setting their countries up to be the future leaders of the world while Americans are still fighting over how we should continue to suck resources so that we can live the ways of yesteryear on easy street rather than use our brains to look for alternatives.
The days of cheap oil are gone, no matter what. Quit kidding yourself. We need to focus on educating our people so that we can be leaders in a sustainable world.
"...all that is not specifically granted to the federal government belongs to the state and/or individuals.
I therefore must contend that the North Slope belongs to the State of Alaska, as well as the Inupiat, who actually live there."
... add to this: The state of Alaska is a state within the United States of America, the Inupiat people are citizens of the state, therefore, citizens of the United States of America.
Conclusion: The land is the property of the United States of America.
wait, just to please Sherry29, I will say, this land is on lease to the United States of America by God/Lord/Jesus/Buddha/Mohammad, ... what ever higher power you believe in.
I have never said drilling and exploration of our own lands would make us completely self-reliant and independent on foreign oil, I have only stated that it would make us less dependent and would make a loud and clear statement to the OPEC countries that we are in control of our own energy destiny. They will get the message, we are, per capita, their largest customer....
I vote we stop buying not from other countries but the other states as well. We have lot of land up here we can utilize by growing and making our own products. I've read in this newspaper about having a dome built for sports why not a dome built for agriculture.
The Independence Party wants to separate from the rest of the US now is the time to show we can do it. With the ore that is in our soils we can create our own metals to build cars (the ones now are mostly plastic anyway).
This will cut down on shipping and support Alaskan Made Products. Come on folks. Alaskans are some of the most intelligent people on earth and the toughest let's show the rest of the country what we're made of.
With the gold and currency here we can create our own currency. Joe Vogler tried telling us but nobody was listening.
The Constitution exists to limit the power of the Federal Government, Non-Lemming and controlling land is one of the greatest powers of all.
I encourage everyone, especially all my fellow Alaskans to read the Constitution for themselves. It's not right for us to be robbed for what is rightfully ours.
Article 1 Section 8
http://www.usconstitution.net/const.html...
The 10th Amendment
http://www.usconstitution.net/const.html...
Some story - teller.
Prudhoe Bay, one of the largest oil developments in the world and for years the product was not for export. How much did our reliance on foreign oil diminish? We all know that our dependency is actually greater. Blaming this fact on enviromentalists is like saying every few years we are able to bring on line another Prudhoe Bay and then another and another, all on our own territory. We all know that is not realistic and we certainly needed, and need, to concentrate on efficient energy use and alternatives. So why did we not look ahead once the North Slope was pumping?
Corruption at all political levels is the easy target and is true to some extent but I've got to say if you step back you can see that corruption is merely a reflection of our own short sighted, money grubbing, "get mine" attitude. This mind set is cancerous and endemic throughout Alaska and the USA. We are not the independent, tough, ingenius indivuals we tell ourselves. We're not number one.
So take responsibility. Consume less, produce what you can, take things from the dumpsters, exercise, and love yourself, your family and your neighbors.
Tundra, and also in addition to our Constitution, the feds have never given Alaska the 90/10 split granted in the statehood compact. I read earlier, Joe Vogler tried to tell everyone, but no, none wanted to listen. I feel the same about Ron Paul today. He is trying to tell America, but no, no one wants to listen. If more Alaskans had listened to and heeded Joes words, things would certainly be different today, that is for sure! He was a man of honor and true to his word, that is why he lies in Dawson today.
Good points, Yukonjohn. I'm afraid our federal government only follows the Constitution as well as the Statehood Compact when it feels it's politically expedient to do so.
Unfortunately, the American people just bleat like sheep and follow along.
I think Joe Vogler would've liked Ron Paul.
Can we lease where we own the shoreline perimeter and take the oil that way? Haven't seen a map of it in a while.
I understand if it flows to our subsurface we can do so legally. My guess is, it would be a bit like trying to siphon gas from a car with a straw though. Seems like someone ought to develop and use it if the feds don't want to.
Probably oversimplifying this, I realize.
Along with the US Constitution you might want to read Alaska's.
www.alaska.edu/creatingalaska/constituti...
"I drink your milkshake...I DRINK IT UP!!"
--Senator Ted Stevens/Daniel Plainview
I left Fairbanks in '90, and Alaska in '04. But hey gang, I still know alot of people up there. Energy costs are tough(er) for you than for I in AZ. Been reading the comments and it brought to mind the old days of the mid-70's, when GVEA urged new home builders to go all electric, touting the low cost. Later on of course they jacked up the rates enormeously. The interior will always be a tough and pricey place to live. Hope wood cutting permits are still easily available and the areas within driving distance.
If we didn't have children, and didn't desire that they have a chance to live in Alaska, as we have, then we'd be in favor of locking the state up in a time warp, with no development. But if you have a desire that your children be given the chance to live productive lives in Alaska, you accept the cost of development. When I was younger and unmarried, I wanted to protect the lifestyle I was living. But, with marriage came children, and a love that was greater than my selfishness.
I think most Alaskans think like I do.
Try thinking like Joe Vogler or Ron Paul for a minute. (This is the fourth time Ive posted this to a fuel price story)
Lets cut the middleman out of this; ie: the world commodities market. How about a 3 part law that reads something like this:
1. A % formula for the prices of different products of crude oil based on todays standards of profit. (If Flint Hills nets, say, $.15/gallon on gasoline produced and sold in the state, then the formula should reflect that.)
2. All crude oil processed and sold domestically (retailed within the state) will be sold to producers for $.05/barrel.
3. Crude oil and related products sold or otherwise removed from the state will remain priced according to the world commodities market.
Seems easy enough to me; after all, what everyone agrees on is that the oil belongs to us; the people of Alaska. Anyone else ready to pay 25c/gallon for gasoline, or 30c/gallon for heating fuel??? This is simple lawmaking; we dont answer to the oil companies, THEY answer to us.
I have no idea what the actual figures are for prices/profits, etc, but I think my idea has merit and deserves serious consideration regardless of the actual numbers. We dont have enough oil for our countries needs, but we DO have enough for Alaska!
I truly believe Joe would have endorsed this.
User6244's list is largely true but much of it is actually made with natural gas. We could astro-turf half the State and it wouldn't use half the gas and oil we use to drive all those pick-ups and SUVs. We use 70% of every barrel of oil to fuel transportation.
If we don't start reducing that need through (dare I say it) conservation, a dozen ANWRs won't help. When the world needs 86.5 million barrels a day and the world only produces 85 million and the Saudis won't (or can't) produce much more I'd call it peak oil.
Here www.hilltoplancers.org/stories/hirsch050... is a 91 page report done by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) for the US Department of Energy some time ago. It is still relevant and should be read by anyone who wants to know what is happening now.
Life changing events are coming and you would be better served to know before rather than after they come. The News-Miner, Teddie, Frank's little girl and Donnie Boy sure aren't going to tell you.
Don't forget, the only cheap energy you'll buy anymore is the energy you don't use in the first place.
Ask people like Warren Buffet or Bill Gates, and they'll tell you that if the old MaBell phone monopoly hadn't been broken up you probably would't be using cellphones today.
The oilygopoly is willfully retarding the advancements in energy DEVELOPMENT until they can control all of the benefits of the RESEARCH for themselves...
Read Peswiki from top to bottom....
http://www.peswiki.com/index.php/Main_Pa...
BigOil does not want you to know this-->
PEAK OIL HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK 400 YEARS [maybe more]
http://www.globalresourcecorp.com/Applic...
TAR SANDS
TAR SAND is often referred to as tar sand because the bitumen (or oil) resembles black, sticky tar. The bitumen content in oil sand deposits varies from 1%-18%. To-date no single method has been developed to recover all oils from oil sand deposits, since the bitumen varies considerably from deposit to deposit as well as within each deposit. The current processes are considered environmental disasters.
KNOWN WORLDWIDE RESERVES
* CANADIAN TAR SANDS -1,500,000,000,000 BARRELS (5)
* VENEZUELA TAR SANDS - 1,600,000,000,000 BARRELS (6)
GRC TECHNOLOGY
The TAR SANDS are bombarded with our specific microwave frequency in the form of molecular vibrations which causes the cracking of the hydrocarbon chain. As a result, the hydrocarbon components in the TAR SANDS are gasified. The NATURAL GAS is then collected and the remaining heavier gases are condensed into OIL.
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
The GRC Energy Recovery Technology operates in a 100% vacuum. Nothing is released into the environment.
There's NO Energy Crisis...
it's a Mental Health Crisis
http://www.stock-market-crash.net/tulip-...
Wanna buy a Tulip ?
Ya lets just keep stoping the development of oil in our own country and keep reling on forien oil. Im tirerd of the high prices and i think we should be tapping our resorces and demanding the high prices to other countrys like they are doing us right now.
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