The next big test for either of the proposed big gas pipeline projects is the so-called “open season,” expected to be conducted next year.

The battle to define the natural gas open season as a success or failure in the public mind has already started, along with the political season.

“Open season” is the term that refers to the period in which companies that control natural gas  have the option of making commitments to ship that gas on a proposed pipeline. Those commitments, worth tens of billions of dollars, can be used as the basis for getting companies to loan money to finance a project.

The conventional wisdom today is that there won’t be binding commitments to ship gas during the open season, which is to take place during an election year. There might be conditional commitments, framed with enough wiggle room that they won’t be taken to the bank.

Some critics will argue that the conditions will mean the open season will be a “failure,” a perception that the Parnell administration rejects. Opponents of Parnell’s are already saying that an open season with conditional commitments could hardly be advertised as a success.

When the Legislature and former Gov. Sarah Palin made their deal with TransCanada, there was little talk that the commitments likely in 2010 would be “conditional.” However,  the Parnell administration and TransCanada are saying  that conditional commitments are the norm.

These would take the form of promises to ship gas if various conditions are met.  The scope of those conditions won’t be known until next year, but they may include an agreement on long-term tax rates with the state, as well as a host of provisions dealing with how the companies interact  with each other.

One of the political figures arguing that conditional commitments are not commitments is Bill Walker, a Republican challenging Parnell in the primary. Walker, who lives in Anchorage, supports a gas line to Valdez and is the general counsel for Alaska Gas Line Port Authority.

He argues that the shale gas boom in North America has removed all economic arguments for building a gas line into Canada and that Alaska should be looking to export its gas and get out of AGIA.

“After the failed initial  open season, the state is required to pay 90 percent of the costs for subsequent open seasons,” he says.

In this battle over whether the open season will be viewed by the public as a success or failure,  the details of the conditional commitments will be a vital element. 

Walker said to us in an interview at the News-Miner that TransCanada officials told the Alaska Municipal League that the proposals won’t be released to the public until late next year, after the election.

He contends that is too long to wait. I agree. The information from TransCanada needs to be made public next summer. 

We should not go through an entire gubernatorial and legislative campaign with nothing but speculation about the facts underlying any claims of success or failure.

Like it or not, the open season is part of the political season.