Most Alaska Republicans see poll bounce following convention, Palin nomination

Published Monday, September 8, 2008

WASHINGTON — A new poll by Democratic pollster Ivan Moore shows incumbent Ted Stevens rapidly gaining ground on challenger Mark Begich in the U.S. Senate race.

Gov. Sarah Palin’s selection as John McCain’s vice-presidential running mate is providing a boost to most — but not all — Republican candidates, Moore said.

According to a poll done at the beginning of September, Stevens has bounced back since early August from being 17 percentage points behind Anchorage Mayor Begich to trailing by only 3 percentage points, well within the 4.4 percent margin of error.

Stevens’ approval rating went from 55 percent before his federal indictment for allegedly failing to disclose some $250,000 in gifts, to 44 percent immediately following the indictment, to 50 percent now, according to previous Moore polling data.

“His numbers are recovering,” Moore said. “The negative hit he took from the indictment is in the process of wearing off.”

Aaron Saunders, Stevens’ campaign spokesman, said the latest poll shows a positive trend.

“It confirms what we’ve known all along — Alaskans are standing by the senator,” he said. Saunders added that the campaign still considers the numbers overly pessimistic. Some Republicans remain suspicious of Moore’s polls because of his close association with Democrats in the past.

“We’ve been saying all along that these are opinion-making polls, not opinion-taking polls,” Saunders said.

In a statewide poll conducted Aug. 9-12, 55.5 percent of respondents said they would vote for Democrat Mark Begich in the Senate race. Fewer than three weeks later, that number had dipped to 49 percent.

Begich’s approval rating took a tumble, down from 65 percent in mid-August to 57 percent at the start of September. Stevens’ positives went from 46 percent to 50 percent in the same time period.

Moore isn’t sure why Begich’s numbers are down. The public seems to be rallying around Stevens, especially after the Republican primary, he said.

Still, Moore considers Beigh the odds-on favorite in November because of the publicity surrounding Stevens’ trial, which begins Sept. 22 in Washington, D.C.

Moore’s most recent statewide poll was conducted Aug. 30 to Sept. 2 with a sample size of 500 and a margin of error of 4.4 percent. The poll was done in conjunction with Anchorage radio station KENI 650 AM, the Anchorage Press, Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman and KTUU.

Gov. Palin’s approval rating climbed slightly to nearly 82 percentage points after news broke that she was the Republican vice-presidential nominee. Palin’s national stage premiere did little to help U.S. Rep. Don Young’s approval ratings, though.

Young, who leads challenger Sean Parnell by 239 votes in the still-unresolved Republican primary for the Alaska’s lone seat in the lower chamber of Congress, continues to slip behind Democrat Ethan Berkowitz, who led by 11 percentage points in mid-August and is now up by 17.

The state Division of Elections is expected to have a final tally in the Republican primary Wednesday, though the close finish could prompt calls for a recount.

In the survey completed Tuesday, Berkowitz received more than 54 percent of the vote in a hypothetical matchup with Young, who received 37 percent.

Some 58 percent of respondents said they had a negative opinion of Young.

“We were down anywhere from 20 to 40 points behind Parnell before the primary, so the only poll that counts is the one on election day,” said Mike Anderson, Rep. Young’s campaign spokesman.

News of Palin’s selection to the national ticket came too late to help Parnell, her lieutenant governor, in the primary.

However, he continues to fare better against Berkowitz in a potential general election matchup than his primary opponent. Parnell’s 4 percent edge on Berkowitz in mid-August has grown to an 11-point lead, according the most recent Moore poll.

Both leading candidates in the Republican House primary received about 8,000 votes more than Berkowitz in the combined Democratic, Alaskan Independent and Libertarian primary.

In total, the Republican ticket attracted105,629 voters compared to 74,532 who chose the combined ADL ballot, a difference of more than 31,000 voters.

In the presidential race, Moore found a 19-point lead for the Republican ticket. In July, Republican John McCain had a narrow lead of 2.5 percentage points on Democrat Barack Obama.

Respondents selected McCain-Palin 53.5 percent of the time compared to 35 percent for Democrats Obama and Joe Biden. Some 12 percent were undecided.

Some 65 percent of Alaskans thought Palin’s presence on the Republican ticket would help McCain’s chances in November.

Slightly more than 20 percent thought it would hurt his campaign, while nearly 15 percent were undecided.

Community Discussion

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  1. EOD_Dave
    9/8/2008, 2:10 a.m.
    Suggest removal

    As more people compare Palin to Obama & Biden, I'm sure her numbers will rise. The liberal press will continue to find petty reasons to criticize Governor Palin. She may not be "perfect" but compared to the records and accomplishments of her competitors, the water she walks on doesn't need to be completely frozen.

    At least with Ted & Don, we know what we've got & they come through for Alaska. I don't trust their competitors & it's unlikely they'll get anything done as junior politicians in a seniority oriented system.

  2. amgray19
    9/8/2008, 7:03 a.m.
    Suggest removal

    Let's see how this "bounce" stands after the hearings with Uncle Ted start!

  3. aksunshine
    9/8/2008, 10:16 a.m.
    Suggest removal

    Heard that Oprah will not have Palin on her show. Although the majority of her staff thinks she should. She stated that she did not want her stage to be an arena for politics. Believe she had Obama on twice, and both times said he was running for president. She endosed him. Maybe it's felt that should Palin be on her show, Palin's rating would go up? Her show is tops for women voters and followers.

  4. aksunshine
    9/8/2008, 10:47 a.m.
    Suggest removal

    whoops that is endorsed and not endosed...

  5. diogenesFBKS
    9/8/2008, 4:07 p.m.
    Suggest removal

    Wonder how his conviction will affect the 'bounce'?

    Has a date been set for the shotgun wedding yet? Forcing a marriage to further her political ambitions.... what a mommy.

    dog

  6. Dognabber
    9/8/2008, 4:12 p.m.
    Suggest removal

    Supporters of Stevens and Young are putting forth one message: It's ok to lie, cheat and steal if you're from Alaska....we'll keep you in office so you can continue reaping the benefits.

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