newsminer.com

FAIRBANKS — A look at the numbers indicate Fairbanks’ and Alaska’s economies are weathering the storm of a nationwide economic downturn, at least so far.

The estimated unemployment rate inside the Fairbanks North Star Borough squeaked upward to 5.2 percent in August from 4.5 percent in 2007. The statewide unemployment estimate rose by a similar clip to 6 percent.

But the state’s increase in unemployment fell far short of the 1.5 percent increase seen at the national level during the same stretch. The national unemployment rate rose from 4.6 in 2007 to 6.1 in August.

“We are still, all the evidence shows, generating job growth. The U.S. as a whole is not,” said state economist Dan Robinson, pointing to a healthy oil and gas industry and a strong state budget as two main reasons.

Prior to this year’s unemployment estimates, Fairbanks had seen a steady increase in jobs in a number of sectors. The number of bank and restaurant workers increased from spring to June, continuing trends of an increasing professional sector in Fairbanks that stretches back to at least 2004. Those gains held steady from fall 2007 through September, according to the state.

Brigitta Windisch-Cole, a state labor economist, said she expects the community’s recent growth — the estimated local annual unemployment rate for the private sector had previously fallen in Fairbanks from 6.9 percent in 2004 to 5.2 percent last year — will continue to slow. But she said the local economy should stay healthy.

“We’ve had quite a bit of growth in Fairbanks, but it’s tapering off,” Windisch-Cole said.

“I expect Fairbanks to be pretty stable,” she said. “Minor adjustments (are needed). Construction, however, could experience a bit of a downturn.”

Kathryn Dodge, the borough’s economic development specialist, wrote in a recent addition of the borough’s Community Research Quarterly that Fairbanks’ relatively strong economy benefits from a housing market and other employment sectors, like natural resources and government employment, that are somewhat insulated from the national economy.

Tourism figures, as measured through airplane passengers and visitors to the University of Alaska Museum of the North, were flat this spring compared to last spring.

Dodge reported that while spikes in energy prices and a military deployment could reduce the level of per-person spending in Fairbanks, that impact will be softened by state officials’ decision to distribute energy relief checks to state residents this fall.

Robinson said that Alaska is one of a few states in the country that has seen employment growth this year, trailing only Montana and Texas in job growth between December and June. The question remains, however, of how Alaska will respond to the nationwide economic slowdown.

“Alaska’s economy continued to grow during the last two U.S. recessions, but that doesn’t mean the state is unaffected by national trends,” he wrote in a September news release.