newsminer.com

ANCHORAGE, Alaska -- Federal government scientists are recommending a cut of nearly 19 percent in the catch of Bering Sea pollock, the raw material used in fish sticks and imitation crab.

If regulators follow the recommendation, the Bering Sea next year could yield its smallest catch of pollock in more than 30 years.

The cutback could hurt processors but is no cause for consumers to be alarmed, according to scientists and industry representatives.

"The sky is not falling when it comes to pollock in the Bering Sea," said David Benton of the Juneau-based Marine Conservation Alliance, which represents fishing fleets, processors and ports.

"This was an expected downturn, and we've seen similar patterns in the past," Benton said.

Others see plenty to worry about. In 2006, the fishery produced close to double the catch recommended for next year.

Jon Warrenchuk, an ocean scientist with the conservation group Oceana, said fishery regulators may be overly optimistic in the ability of pollock stock to rebound.

Government scientists who track the population of the bottom fish are recommending a 2009 commercial catch limit of 815,000 tons, the lowest catch limit since federal management of the fishery began in 1977.

Warrenchuk and other conservationists say it might be wise to cut the catch limit even deeper. Pollock are important for other reasons than commercial harvest.

"Anyone who's concerned about the overall health of the Bering Sea ecosystem is always watching what the pollock stock is doing," Warrenchuk said. "It's central to the food web."

Pollock historically have ranked as the nation's largest commercial catch by weight and the most valuable of Alaska fisheries, worth some $1 billion after processing.

More than 100 boats fish for pollock in January each year.

Jim Ianelli, a fishery scientist with the National Marine Fisheries Service in Seattle, said the pollock decline was expected based on population surveys and complex mathematical modeling.

The stock is likely to begin growing again as pollock born in 2006 begin reach adult size, Ianelli said, and that could happen as soon as next year,

Federal catch limits for pollock have been conservative to make sure the reproductive capability of the stock is preserved, he said.

John Bundy, president of Seattle-based Glacier Fish Co., which runs three ships that catch and process pollock at sea, said it would hurt to see the catch limit cut to 815,000 tons next season. He had hoped for a limit of no lower than 900,000 tons, compared with this year's 1 million.

"It's definitely bad news," he said. "On the other hand, we still live in a world of supply and demand and if it helps maintain the prices we've seen in the last half of this year, which have been excellent, then that's good."

Consumers of fast-food fish sandwiches might see price increases, Bundy said, though food companies could substitute other types of fish such as tilapia.

Ianelli said his recommended catch limit for next year is preliminary and could be adjusted up or down. Two panels of scientists will review the recommendation.

At a meeting next month in Anchorage, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council will set a catch limit. The 11-member council has government and industry representatives from Alaska, Washington and Oregon.