Fiscal gap may return to greet Palin in what seems like start of another term

Published Wednesday, November 5, 2008

It’s almost as if a second term for Gov. Sarah Palin begins today.

Her first term ended two months ago when she left the familiar confines of Alaska and entered the national stage as Sen. John McCain’s running mate.

For her second term, the political landscape has changed.

She is now a national star in the eyes of conservative Republicans across the country — who cheered every attack on Sen. Barack Obama and every swipe at the Democrats. And she is the subject of derision from those who see her as excessively partisan or no different than the caricature created by Tina Fey.

As every analyst on every network seemed to say in the weeks after the GOP convention, Palin “energized the base.” Yet, she also emerged as a polarizing figure among those who supported Obama in his successful campaign.

There will be no end to post-election analyses about the Palin effect in the presidential race and whether McCain would have done better or worse with someone else on the ticket. Meanwhile, the economic collapse and the low approval ratings for President George W. Bush made it hard to win as a Republican.

According to national polls, a majority of voters believed she was not qualified to take over as president in case something happened to McCain.

It will take some time to assess her place on the national scene. There are those who will be quick to write her off as a two-month wonder and others who will see her as the future of the GOP, once she gets more seasoning.

Palin, who has overnight become the most famous politician in Alaska’s history, may have a bright future in national politics, broadcasting or giving public speeches to conventioneers eager for a hard-line conservative message.

In his concession speech Tuesday, McCain called her an “impressive new voice in our party for reform.”

“We can all look forward with great interest to her future service to Alaska, the Republican Party and our country,” McCain said of Palin.

But will her main interest be in governing Alaska after she has experienced the intensity of the biggest political stage in America? For the next two years, it could be, though she undoubtedly will be thinking of what comes next.

It’s a long way from Wasilla to Washington, in more ways than one.

For the immediate future, governing Alaska will require that she forge new alliances in Juneau, where one of the biggest challenges she will face is financial. Our old friend, the fiscal gap, may greet her when she gets off the plane.

Oil prices rose Tuesday by $6.49, but they remain about $40 lower than they were when Palin flew to Arizona in late August for her job interview with McCain. The spring forecast for oil prices of $83 this year seems optimistic at this date.

The governor and the Legislature will face new hurdles as they work to create a budget in light of changed circumstances.

On the two major issues during her time in Juneau — oil taxes and the gas pipeline — she worked with a broad mix of Republicans and Democrats. But her national campaign was all about partisan politics and party lines, so it will be interesting to see what approach she takes in the months ahead.

Palin’s approval ratings with the public in Alaska remain high, though not as high as they were before the intense scrutiny and criticism that came with the national campaign.

The political atmosphere in Alaska that led to the $1,200 “resource rebate” is gone, largely because the financial projections it was based on three months ago have proven faulty. What was expected to be a multibillion dollar surplus is not materializing.

That will increase the challenge for the next Legislature and for Gov. Palin, during what seems like a second term, which begins today.

If you have a column suggestion or a comment, contact me at cole@newsminer.com or 459-7530.

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