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SEWARD, Alaska -- The blackouts are coming! The blackouts are coming!

Well, probably not.

Or at least not in the near future.

Or at least if Chugach Electric doesn't issue another Seward-based interruption.

And if the current city generators hold up.

And if

According to Tim Barnum, who oversees the city's electricity, the chances of a blackout are remote, though he quickly added that it was far from impossible.

The city, he explained, currently owns six generators. Two of those are surplus World War II submarine engines. One is unusable, and the other iffy: It could run forever, or it could run for five minutes.

The other four, however, are operationally strong enough to keep the city going.

"We operated on our generators for 26 days due to an avalanche in 2006," he said.

The generators are diesel powered, which Barnum said sets up the potential for engine problems.

"We do try and exercise them regularly," he said, adding that such mechanical problems could cause the city to be short on capacity.

Yet he doesn't see that as much of a concern. The chances of two or three generators going down at once is unlikely, and even if they did, many of the city's larger businesses, such as the prison, hospital and Safeway, have their own emergency generators.

"I see no reason why three units (generators) shouldn't be able to supply whatever the rest of the needs are," he said.

Blackout warning Residents have been talking and posting comments on the city's blog about the potential for rolling blackouts since the City of Seward Electrical Department sent out a warning in last month's bills.

"Chugach informed the city that the current restriction of natural gas supplies could impact Chugiak's ability to provide enough power to fulfill our needs during periods of extreme cold weather," it said. "Currently, our generators are not adequate to provide enough power during peak periods of use. This will cause the city to implement rolling blackouts for customers."

The warning was formulated by community development contract administrator Christy Terry and Electrical Department field engineer Jeff Estes, and then approved by city manager Phillip Oates, according to Terry. The measure was taken due to a recent notification by Chugach Electric that a natural gas supply restriction might impact their ability to supply the city with adequate power.

The city's electrical utility company purchases power from Chugach Electric, which it then sells to its customers. The wholesale contract between the two contains a clause specifying occasional interruptions in accordance with company need. According to Phil Steyer, spokesman for Chugach Electric, the city chose this type of contract on the basis of having enough power to provide for itself if the need arose.

Mayor Clark Corbridge doesn't exactly see it that way. While the interruption clause saves the city money, in his estimation Chugach pressured the clause into the agreement.

"They were going to be really difficult about a lot of other things on the contract if we couldn't give them that out," he said. "So we agreed in order to get a contract that was as good as we could get."

At the time of the notification, the city was experiencing generator problems. Warning customers of possible reductions and blackouts, Terry said, was the prudent thing to do.

A little about electricity Over the years, Chugach has notified the City of Seward "dozens" of time about possible interruptions, Steyer said. The most recent had to do with gas delivery shortages based on mechanical problems of a large steam turbine generator at the Beluga Power Plant.

The plant contains three units, two of which are gas turbines; Unit 8 is steam, powered by hot exhaust from the gas turbines.

Recently a leak was discovered in the main steamline of Unit 8 and it was taken off line for repairs. According to Steyer, it will likely be out until mid-December. Power is being made up by burning gas in other machines, resulting in a higher amount of gas draw which, in turn, prompted the City of Seward interruption notice.

Seward uses about 10 megawatts a load at peak times. When correlated with statewide consumption, it's barely a flicker. Which is one reason why interruption notices aren't frequent occurrences.

"On occasion, Chugach has called up Seward and said, 'We have to interrupt you,'" Steyer said. "Sometimes we have and sometimes we haven't. It all depends upon the status of the system."

If an interruption took place while Seward's main generators were down, he added, Chugach and the city would put their heads together to formulate alternative plans. In the end, the threat of blackouts is nothing to lose sleep over, Barnum said.

"The possibility is always there, but the likelihood of it happening, in my opinion, is fairly slim."