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Oil prices this year have been more unpredictable than ever.

Since peaking in July, the value of the commodity that underlies the Alaska economy has dropped by about $100 a barrel.

In this environment, it’s understandable that the state is being cautious with its predictions.

I wrote here last week that the state had quietly trimmed its oil price forecast for the fiscal year by about $6 a barrel.

The annual average drop may be of that size or larger, but Revenue Commissioner Pat Galvin advises that the calculations are not final.

“The official fall forecast will be released on Dec. 9. A preliminary number was inadvertently included in a recent weekly report,” he said. “Sorry for the confusion.”

The figures I quoted from the department site said that the annual average for crude oil would be in the $76.69 range, while the spring forecast put the number at $83.04.

For the moment, the state Web site is back to quoting the higher number. That’s unlikely to continue past Dec. 9, however, as Alaska oil prices were $50 on Friday.

While the best minds in our country have yet to grapple what has happened to the U.S. economy in the last few months, we find ourselves in the same position in Alaska regarding oil prices, state income and what to expect in the months and years ahead.

At a hearing during the special session this summer, an optimistic state official said if oil prices remained where they were at the time, the state would pile up a surplus of $15 billion to $17 billion this year.

While a legislator pointed out the fiscal year was just beginning, the prevailing atmosphere in Alaska was that high oil prices were here to stay.

That’s why the $1,200 “resource rebate” won broad support. The state has many pots of money and conflicting definitions of income, which make it hard to say just what oil price is needed to balance the budget.

Various numbers have been quoted, but it appears that the state will have to dip into savings before long. If prices stay where they are now, the words “fiscal gap” will return to the everyday vocabulary of Alaskans.

Just as the nation will struggle to adapt to new economic realities, so will the state — facing lower oil prices and declining North Slope oil production, now about one-third of what it was two decades ago. It will take more than chanting “Drill Baby Drill” to address this problem.

One of the strangest aspects of Alaska politics over the past three decades is that we have often been in alignment with the nations of OPEC in desiring higher oil prices, except when it comes to buying gasoline, heating oil or diesel.

But we don’t talk much about how our goals have been in line with the cartel, for obvious political reasons. Alaska never applied to join the OPEC club, but — with the exception of individual purchases by Alaskans — we have cheered steep oil and bemoaned cheap oil.

High oil prices created by rising demand around the world and actions by the OPEC autocrats have bailed us out time and time again.

You would probably find many Alaskans who would agree today with the Saudis that $75 is a “fair price” for oil.

“In our view, $75 per barrel would be a fair price. Our budgets are not based on the earlier high price but on a lower one. What comes in excess goes to surplus reserves and sovereign wealth,” King Abdullah told a Kuwaiti newspaper last week.

But that price is out of reach at the moment.

On Saturday, the New York Times said the unwillingness of OPEC to seek an immediate cut in production despite a worldwide drop in demand “reflects the difficulties the cartel is facing in trying to stop prices from falling.”

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ON THE ROAD: The “Rambling Rat” project, an around-the-world drive in a Toyota Land Cruiser, was expected to reach Fairbanks on Sunday. The two men who traveled up the Alaska Highway are working to help StreetKids International, a nonprofit from Toronto that works with homeless kids in 63 countries.

If you have a column suggestion or a comment, contact me at cole@newsminer.com or 459-7530.