newsminer.com

JUNEAU -- Don't look for an indictment to knock Ted Stevens out of the U.S. Senate race in Tuesday's primary, but look closely at the final numbers for clues about Stevens' chances in November.

The key is if he gets more than 50 percent of the vote against his six challengers, or simply finishes ahead of them without breaking that threshold.

"That's what's worth watching," said Gerald McBeath, chairman of the political science department at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. "That's what everyone will be talking about."

And if Stevens doesn't break 50 percent?

"That means dissatisfaction," McBeath said. "It means throw out the rascal."

Late last month, federal prosecutors charged Stevens with a seven-count indictment alleging that he lied on Senate disclosure reports to conceal more than $250,000 in home renovations and gifts from VECO Corp. executives. He asked for a speedy trial, and got it. Proceedings start Sept. 22 in federal court in Washington, D.C.

If Stevens is nervous about the trial, it hardly shows.

On Friday, over 200 supporters received him in Juneau's convention center for a lunchtime fund raiser and underscored their support for him with several standing ovations.

"I'm not worried about the primary," Stevens said before the lunch. "This support is going on all over the state. I think if anything, I'm energized.

"If you look at the problems I've got beyond the elections in terms of the case in court, this is overwhelming support that's not only humbling but it keeps you going; it restores faith, really, in what we are doing."

Several political analysts said the indictment may not change the ultimate result - a Mark Begich-Ted Stevens November election showdown - but it's the tone of the contest that's changed since the July 29 indictment.

Mostly, it's how GOP challengers are treating Stevens, an icon of Alaska politics who up until federal agents raided his home a year ago, was a seemingly untouchable political figure.

The loudest noise is coming from Republican challenger Vic Vickers, whose commercials directly attack Stevens for the allegations laid out by federal prosecutors.

Vickers struck quickly after the indictment. He stood outside Stevens' Anchorage campaign office calling for the longest-serving Republican in Senate history to step down.

Soon after, his ads hit the airwaves, including one that abruptly begins, "Vic Vickers will stop corruption." In another, he's shown standing outside Ted Stevens' home in Girdwood, the focus of the accusations against Stevens.

Vickers said his interest in Alaska dates to 1970 when he hitchhiked to the state, returning almost yearly since. During that time, he said he's built wealth in real estate, financial institutions, and by holding controlling interest in a Florida maritime company, Eller and Co.

Vickers said he's serious about the campaign and expects to win. "Let's put it this way: I didn't put $1 million into the campaign if I didn't think I could win."

"This whole thing has been become a spectacle which has given Alaska a black eye," Vickers said. "He's made us laughing stock of America."

Critics question the "us" in Vickers' claim. He only moved to Alaska in January, but says he's not a carpetbagger, citing his yearly treks north.

The ads for another GOP challenger, David Cuddy, are as quiet as Vickers' are loud.

Cuddy's ads simply tell Alaskans he's the only Republican who can keep the Senate seat in GOP hands come November.

Despite Cuddy's frequent travel's out of state, the Anchorage developer has lifetime roots in Alaska, including a two-year stint serving in the House of Representatives.

He comes from one of the state's most prominent banking families and formerly was president of First National Bank of Anchorage. He did live in Los Angeles earlier this decade consulting for the entertainment industry.

Cuddy said he's concerned that Begich will gain insurmountable momentum while Stevens is in federal court next month rather than campaigning.

"Begich can just sit back and let the prosecutor run his campaign for him," Cuddy said. "If Stevens is sitting in a federal courtroom while witnesses are parading through, saying negative things about him, that will make Begich's numbers higher."

While the Republicans are quick to remind Alaskans of Stevens' legal troubles, the Democratic front-runner is focusing on issues.

Except for one television ad calling for widespread change in government, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich has so far avoided playing the corruption card.

The ad features men in black suits walking through a car wash with an announcer saying, "Don't you wish you could do this to Washington politicians?"

The ad aired before Stevens was indicted.

"It's not about an individual; I'm not interested in talking about the challenges Ted Stevens has," Begich said. "People have lost faith in government and how government is responding to people, and I just wanted to give them that in a fun, humorous way."

Since announcing an exploratory committee to review his prospects six months ago, Begich has paid several visits to Fairbanks and Juneau, and he's made stops in rural villages such as Kotzebue, Nome and Bethel.

"I made a decision to run on the issues, focus on what Alaskans are telling me during the exploratory period, how they were concerned with energy, education, and health care," he said. "I think I've kept on that message."

Others in the GOP primary are Jerry Heikies, Rick Sikma, Michael Corey and Rich Wanda.

Begich faces challenges from Ray Metcalfe and Frank J. Vondersaar in Tuesday's Democratic primary.

Independent Bob Bird and Libertarian David Haase automatically qualify for the general election since they have no challengers.

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On the Net:

http://tedstevens2008.com/

http://begich.com/home

http://www.davecuddy.com/

http://www.vicvickers.com/