July was one of the wettest-ever months in Interior Alaska
Published Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Digg
delicious
Facebook
Mixx
Reddit
Stumble It!
FAIRBANKS — If Fairbanks seems soggier and grayer than usual, that’s because the Interior has received twice its average rainfall this summer.
About 8 inches of precipitation have fallen since June 1, more than half of that amount in July, making it the sixth-wettest July on record according to National Weather Service data. While August typically registers the most rain of any month of the year, July’s total may surpass the August mark.
“We usually have this rainy period in August, and it just came a little bit earlier this year,” said Matthew Kidwell, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Fairbanks.
This summer has brought a steady stream of rain, clouds and more rain. June skies were partly cloudy on 22 days and saw measurable levels of rain on 15 days. Eighteen July days were cloudy, and 14 of those brought rain. And Monday was only the second dry day of August so far.
A wet July doesn’t ensure Fairbanks will be spared rain in August, he said, as it’s hard to predict patterns beyond a week in advance.
“We could have an Indian summer, or it could continue,” Kidwell said.
The deluge that recently flooded Salcha and Nenana came from big, back-to-back low-pressure systems in late July, he said. Rainy conditions that dumped 3 inches in five days during the last week in July didn’t clear up for 15 days — only Aug. 3 lacked precipitation — until breaking yesterday.
“It wasn’t anything super unusual,” said Kidwell.
A second storm just happened to bump up against the first and exacerbate the flooding, he said.
The same conditions and cloud cover keeping Fairbanks wet made this past July the coolest in seven years, according to weather service data.
Community Discussion
Newsminer.com doesn't necessarily condone the comments here, nor does it review every post. Read our full user's agreement.
Guess what! The huge North Pole Icecap
that is melting must go somewhere.
Now that the fair is over, we'll see lots of sun.
*crosses fingers*
Wow...that was wise, chief
How many inches of snow would that be if the precipitation was delayed a few more months!
I've wondered about that, too, Wisechief. If this trend continues, maybe the Borough really ought to consider building another flood control gate upstream of Salcha.
amazing,
alaska is cold and wet?
what a wacky world!
it sucks to endure fairbanks winters and then get robbed of summer.
generally an inch of rain would equate to a foot of snow. More snow if its colder and less if it's warmer. As least that's what I've been lead to believe.
Floodgates on the Tanana?
Although possible to build floodgates on the Tanana, the project would be incredible in size. You would have to have an enormous diversion channel through the flats and it would pound Nenana when it reentered the Tanana.
Here's an idea. Rather than spend billions of dollars on a Tanana Flood control project lets just not build on marginal, low land. Or alternatively, if you did build or buy on marginal low land, don't expect the rest of the world to save you.
This is completely and (relatively) cheaply preventable. If you are low, regardless of what the FEMA map says, have your elevation surveyed, build (or raise) the first occupied floor 18-24 inches above the mean flood elevation for your area. You may need to build on piers or a crawl space but it will save your house.
National Weather Service forecaster Matthew Kidwell said that "...it's hard to predict [weather] patterns beyond a week in advance."
Imagine that. I thought that people were now predicting the weather years in advance. Even decades.
BTW - All of the glaciers and icecaps in the world contain about 2.15% of the world's water. If it all melts, it will slightly raise the level of the ocean, not the rivers.
While it melts however, glacial rivers like the Tanana would run a little higher. We would not notice this as flooding as much as smaller islands, a deeper channel, and more channel erosion. The channel would also move around more.
The Tanana has been all over this valley. We should not presume that we will be successful in containing it just because we decided to invest infrastructure near it. Go visit the former Chena townsite if you want to see proof of how that bet works out.
Glacerles: Local and regional weather =\= global climate.
Glacierles - they are "predicting" climate, not weather. Climate is a regional or global phenomenon, weather is local. Slight changes in pressure differentials from week to week are the reason you can't predict weather more than a week out.
Certain physical properties (such as thermal expansion of seawater) are known. Certain long term (decadal) cycles and the effects of those cycles are at least guessed at and modeled.
Things get a little murkier after that...
What is not murky is the fact that the Tanana floods, it will flood again and the places where it floods are easily identifiable by anyone who can look at a map, read an elevation, or realize that cute little pond they built on is really an old oxbow..
Right on Glacierles! I don't think you need a PHD behind your name to figure out that "predicting" the climate or local weather is all looking into a crystal ball.
Lagirl,
You obviously are not ready for a Ph.D. Read Alaskaman's comments and try again.
While I dont doubt the education credentials of the poster's here, and I understand that many of the University types think that anyone with any doubts about man-made global warming, global climate change, or impending world tragedy are just dunderheads better left to toil in the fields and watch their reality tv.
Us poor common folk read the debate, and see some scientists that claim that maybe not all the data is included in the models being held up as proof. And as Alaskaman100 writes, "Certain long term (decadal) cycles and the effects of those cycles are at least guessed at and modeled. Things get a little murkier after that...".
You know what? That's not good enough.
Akhusky--Oh, I get it now--stupid me!!
*snicker*
No matter how big the words get--it still equates to a GUESS!
Glacierles,
I think you are correct that there is some professional arrogance at work there. It is not as much against the "common folk" as against anyone who isn't a directly involved in climate study. The input from non-climatologists is often poo-pooed.
Here's what is objectively known. Climate change is the rule. Static climates are relatively rare on the geologic scale. They happen for short periods of time. Within human history we have experienced massive climate change. There are petroglyphs of hippos and giraffes in the Sahara. There used to be open fairs on the Thames river ice in the winter.
Global temperatures have been increasing worldwide for about 500 years. The rate recently (since sat imaging in the early 70's) seems to be faster than can be explained by natural models. However, this is a short time scale to base a model on. Anyone with a Phd in the past generation knows only this data set. The current dominant guess seems to by a synergistic effect of a natural warming cycle with a man made carbon component moderated by carbon absorbtion by the ocean.
Here's something else that is known - the entire polar ice cap could melt with zero effect on the ocean levels (the ice is already floating and is already displacing the ocean it sits in). However, the temperature rises and the oceans will swell just by the physics. It won't end up in the Tanana - I can promise you that.
Sorry we haven't got it all figured out. We'll try to do better. Spend the billions people were talking about wasting on a Tanana flood control project on supercomputer time and research and we might get closer to a working model. The fact is we will only have models, not a real answer. That is how modeling of complex systems works - fundementally, it's just math.
As for the policy wonks and the people who want to make money off whether warming will or won't happen, they have their own motives for pushing one theory or another and are using the science - and unfortunately in some cases, driving it. I don't speak for them. Don't confuse what they are doing with real science though. Real science will always be murky and need some tweaking. Anyone who tells you they have the "answer" to this is probably trying to sell you something
Wetter because we got more rain....what a revelation.
groughyolman---you got it just right sometimes it rains, sometimes it dont---duh
Wow, that is only news to someone who just moved here.
The ADN has an article in it about the shift of the Pacific decadal oscillation to northern Siberia. Basically saying this brings in colder temps and lasts for decades when it shifts. Take a look. They also are calling Alaska the "Icebox State."
we just need channel 11 weather guy to tell us it will rain and guess what IT'LL BE SUNNY!!!!!!!! his wife says soo!!! hehehe
I have to laugh, "Long cold winters and rainy summers" well that is what you get when you live in the great NORTH. If you could remember it used to be this same way back 30 yrs ago.
I'm not talking about global warming neither. It is a general weather cycle that comes around like evolution. I particular don't mind it,sun or rain i'am fine. That is why i live here instead of any other polluted city.
Being here and being away from the general negativity of basic BIG city life is very rewarding. I could disappear in a matter of hrs for good. try doing that anywhere else.
Post a comment
Commenting requires registration.