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• The UAF "Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning" program says that climate models show Fairbanks temperatures are expected to increase in the decades ahead.

The charts show the largest increases, under five global climate models,  are expected in the winter months.

The three alternatives presented  here show various scenarios based on whether greenhouse gas emissions in the future are low, medium or high.

Even if emissions remain level or decline, sizable winter increases in average temperatures are expected. Those increases will rise, according to the five climate models, if emissions go up.

If there are rapid increases in emissions, the average January temperature will rise a few degrees by mid-century and top the 0 mark by 2061-2070.  The average temperature in January  now is about 10 below.

A century from now, the average December and January temperatures in Fairbanks could be 10 above, one model predicts.

The director of the program, Scott Rupp, said in a December press release that the charts, which are available for 350 communities in Alaska, "allow people to get in touch with climate change at the local level."

“It can be hard to digest the big picture on a global or even a statewide scale but this method makes it easier to relate to, in a way that is specific to how changes can impact specific locations," he said.

The charts predict the average temperature and precipitation level for every decade over the next 100 years, based on different levels of greenhouse gas emissions.

"The website allows users to compare various communities and consider how the changing climate may affect their own activities such as gardening or hunting or more public concerns, including drought, forest fire or permafrost melt," the UAF statement said.

The charts developed by SNAP staff are based on the research work of John Walsh, chief scientist of the International Arctic Research Center, and other scientists.

“This is our first effort to link communities in Alaska with basic climate scenario methods,” Rupp said. “This makes it easy to look at how precipitation and temperature are expected to change throughout this century.”

There are also charts predicting precipitation levels. The Fairbanks charts show that rising temperatures in future decades would be accompanied by slight increases in rain and snow over the next several decades, with larger increases by the final decade of this century. Under all three of the forecasts, August would remain the wettest month, followed by July.

Climate change charts for North Pole, Ester and Fox are also available through the system.

North Pole would warm up, but it would remain colder than Fairbanks, the forecasts say.

For more information, go to www.snap.uaf.edu